The microbiome modulation market: The rise of Amazon and TikTok

Sales of probiotic supplements in the United States have declined in both mass and natural channels, according to data from SPINS. For the 52 weeks ending on Oct. 6 2024, probiotic sales in the mass market totaled just over $833 million, a 4.6% decrease from the previous year. Moreover, sales in the natural channel decreased almost 7% to just under $116 million.

Despite this, the numbers are still bigger than they were pre-pandemic, said Scott Dicker, market insights director at SPINS.

“There has been increased interest in non-GI related health focuses over the past couple years with an overall decline this year in most areas,” he said.

Indeed, looking at the data by health condition, digestive health is down 8%, mood support is down 39%, immunity by 26%. The one health condition reporting an increase—and an eye-popping increase to boot—is reproductive health, with sales increasing a whopping 7,777% year-over-year to reach almost $16.5 million.

But look to Amazon, and there is a different story. A combined prebiotics + probiotics category is the number 5 category on the marketplace, with almost $840 million in sales, an increase of 9% year-on-year. Unit sales also increased 10% year-on-year, according to SPINS.

Data from Nielsen IQ offered a similar shift to online for some other retailers. While sales of probiotic supplements in grocery stores did decline almost 14% year-over-year, online sales from grocery stores grew 230%, said Kevin Hutchings, client manager, product insights at NielsenIQ.

For club stores like Sam’s Club and Costco, probiotic supplement sales in-store increased 6.5%, he said, but grew online by 60%.

Taken altogether, the numbers still point to annual growth for the U.S. supplements category across all channels of about 2% over the next four years, said George Paraskevakos, executive director of the International Probiotics Association.

“So that puts the United States around $ 2.3 to $2.4 billion,” he said.

Consumer trends​

While brands need to understand the shifting retail landscape, they also need to have their finger on where and how consumers are educating themselves about these products, and that’s where SPATE comes into the conversation.

The top brands in the probiotics space include Culturelle, Physician's Choice, Garden of Life and Align (according to NielsenIQ), but the most searched-for brand on Google is Spring Valley, Walmart’s own brand. According to SPATE, Spring Valley receives over 121K average monthly searches. This “suggests a broader consumer interest in more mainstream, affordable probiotic brands available at major retailers,” Alyssa Williams, food and beverage category insights manager at SPATE, told NutraIngredients-USA.

“Additionally, while lower in views (1.1K average monthly views), Ancient Nutrition sees a +128.9% year-over-year growth suggesting this brand has potential for future growth.”

The picture is quite different on TikTok, however, where Seed and its branded hashtag #seedprobiotics receives 260.5K average weekly views alongside probiotics, and #seedpartner receives over 24K average weekly views.

This data “reflects a preference for more niche, premium or influencer-driven products that emphasize science-backed formulations”, said Williams. “This indicates a bifurcation in consumer interest—Google remains a channel for broad, functional searches, while TikTok reflects a growing consumer demand for storytelling, educational content and user experiences around specific brands.”

SPATE has also witnessed a significant shift in consumer interest and searches on the two platforms. Google searches for probiotics saw a decrease year-over-year (-13.4%), Williams told us, while searches for probiotics on TikTok have skyrocketed (+209.3%).

“This implies a shift towards social media platforms for gathering health-related content and discussion, signaling a change in how consumers engage with probiotic supplements,” she said. “This shift indicates an evolution from static research through Google towards engaging, dynamic social content.”

Comparing probiotics and prebiotics reveals that consumer awareness is much higher for the former, which presents an opportunity to increase visibility and education around the latter, said Williams.

Awareness may be high for probiotics, but it also appears that consumers are deepening their understanding of the microbiome in general. Interestingly, the most-viewed “concern hashtag” alongside probiotics on TikTok is #Microbiome with 42.9 million total views, said Williams.

“The focus on microbiome health is a particularly strong signal that consumers are becoming increasingly educated on the complexity of gut health, suggesting potential for specialized probiotic formulations,” she said. “Brands may leverage this interest to provide tailored health solutions, targeting these specific conditions through strategic marketing.”