Increasing scientific evidence of health benefits and wideningworldwide acceptance by consumers and health professionals is generally expected to boost sales of natural and alternative medicines but improvingraw material quality and new sources could also play a role, suggests the market research firm.
Bill Martineau, industry analyst at the Freedonia Group, noted that Martek's vegetarian fatty acids, DHA and ARA (the first derived from algae, the second from a fungus), opened up a new market for the ingredients in infant formula.
Meanwhile Cargill Acidulants' Regenasure glucosamine, also made from a fungus, reduces overall raw material volume requirements, offering higher potency than sulphate formulations and easing pressure on tight shellfish supply.
Glucosamine - in combination with chondroitin - is forecast to generate the fastest sales gains among non-herbal compounds over the four-year period due to proven benefits in arthritis management.
In vitamins too, natural forms of vitamin A and E are expected to offer the best growth opportunities due to performance and cost-effectiveness advantages over synthetic versions.
"Natural vitamin E offers over three times the absorption rate of synthetic vitamin E as well as reduced side effects and better cardiovascular health benefits. This will favour sales over synthetic forms," said Martineau.
Sales of vitamin C and folic acid will continue to rise moderately based on breadth of product applications and strong evidence of disease prevention benefits, while calcium and magnesium will continue to hold the largest share of nutraceutical demand among minerals due to widespread deficiencies throughout the world.
Functional additives, particularly probiotics, omega-3 fatty acids, soyisoflavones and lycopene, are among other nutraceuticals projected to generate above average gains due to expanding use in both conventional and specialty foods and beverages. Among the herbs, ginkgo biloba for enhanced cognitive properties, saw palmetto for benign prostatic hyperplasia, ginseng for energy boosting and black cohosh for post-menopausal symptoms will provide the best growth prospects, predicts Freedonia.
China will remain the fastest growing nutraceutical market as improving economic prosperity allows for the upgrading and diversification of national food and drug industries. Developing nations in the Asia/Pacific, Latin America, Eastern Europe and Africa/Mideast regions will also see fast growth in nutraceuticals as a result of rising consumer income levels, increasinginvestment in bulk and end-use product industries, and trends promotingpreventive medicine.
Nonetheless, the US, Japan and major West European countries will remain the largest global producers and consumers due to greater economic prosperity, healthier lifestyles and more important consumer awareness of nutritional requirements.
The industry is typically fragmented but intensifying competition is promoting consolidation in the field.
"The vitamins segment has already consolidated significantly. Major nutraceutical material producers will continue to cull product lines to focus on products with strong market potential," said Martineau.
He added however that the herbal segment will likely expand due to the limited number of broad line suppliers.